Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 24 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

71.2%

24h Change

-16.5 pp

Signal Score

68/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 16.5pp; volume is 6.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-07 09:37 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 16.5pp
24h volume is 6.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $14,934

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

71.2%

24h Change

-16.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

145 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 7, 09:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/7/2026, 9:30:00 AM	71.2%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	71.3%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 AM	71.8%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 AM	72.0%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 AM	72.0%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 AM	71.7%
8/7/2026, 4:30:00 AM	70.9%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 AM	71.3%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 AM	75.1%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 AM	76.4%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 AM	74.7%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 AM	74.0%
8/6/2026, 11:00:00 PM	74.9%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 PM	83.2%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 PM	84.2%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 PM	84.0%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 PM	84.3%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 PM	84.8%
8/6/2026, 5:00:00 PM	85.6%
8/6/2026, 4:00:00 PM	85.8%
8/6/2026, 3:00:00 PM	84.2%
8/6/2026, 2:00:00 PM	83.0%
8/6/2026, 1:00:00 PM	86.4%
8/6/2026, 12:00:00 PM	87.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.6 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$62.0K

Volume vs Baseline

6.3x baseline

Liquidity

$14.9K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 24 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 68/100.

Probability Momentum 55

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 81

Persistence 42

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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