Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?

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Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+47.0 pp

Signal Score

85/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 47.0pp; volume is 33.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 08:49 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 47.0pp
24h volume is 33.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $36,985

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+47.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

163 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 08:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 8:45:00 AM	100.0%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	43.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	44.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	47.0%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	47.0%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	45.0%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	43.0%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	43.0%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	43.0%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	43.0%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	42.0%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	37.5%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	38.0%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 PM	39.0%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 PM	37.0%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 AM	37.0%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 AM	46.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$45.4K

Volume vs Baseline

33.7x baseline

Liquidity

$37.0K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 8, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 85/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (79)

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