US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

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Current Probability

34.9%

24h Change

-17.8 pp

Signal Score

64/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability fell 17.8pp; volume is 2.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-29 08:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 17.8pp
24h volume is 2.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $71,358

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

34.9%

24h Change

-17.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

20 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 29, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM	34.9%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 AM	35.1%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 AM	34.4%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 AM	34.7%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM	34.4%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 AM	35.3%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM	33.3%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM	36.0%
7/28/2026, 11:00:00 PM	24.8%
7/28/2026, 10:00:00 PM	36.5%
7/28/2026, 9:00:00 PM	58.6%
7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM	57.3%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM	57.5%
7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM	57.6%
7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM	57.8%
7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM	56.9%
7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM	54.6%
7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM	55.8%
7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM	53.4%
7/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM	54.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$709.7K

Volume vs Baseline

2.9x baseline

Liquidity

$71.4K

Market Significance

High (85)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 24, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 64/100.

Probability Momentum 59

Volume Activity 67

Liquidity Quality 97

Persistence 41

Data Confidence High (84)

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