US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
Current Probability
34.9%
24h Change
-17.8 pp
Signal Score
64/100
Data Confidence
High (84)
24h probability fell 17.8pp; volume is 2.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 17.8pp
- 24h volume is 2.9x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $71,358
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
34.9%
24h Change
-17.8 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
-0.2 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$709.7K
Volume vs Baseline
2.9x baseline
Liquidity
$71.4K
Market Significance
High (85)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Jul 24, 2026
Attention Score
71
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 64/100.