US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Closed View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

52.5%

24h Change

-8.0 pp

Signal Score

39/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability fell 8.0pp; volume is 1.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 56 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 8.0pp
24h volume is 1.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $65,868

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

52.5%

24h Change

-8.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

185 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	52.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	52.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	53.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	49.0%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	51.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	42.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	51.0%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	51.0%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	53.0%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	58.0%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	61.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	62.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	62.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	59.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$763.8K

Volume vs Baseline

1.4x baseline

Liquidity

$65.9K

Market Significance

High (85)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 39/100.

Probability Momentum 27

Volume Activity 21

Liquidity Quality 97

Persistence 48

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗