US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

Open · Resolves in 11 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

63.5%

24h Change

-5.0 pp

Signal Score

37/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability fell 5.0pp; volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 55 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 5.0pp
24h volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $67,830

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

63.5%

24h Change

-5.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

164 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	63.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	64.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	64.0%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	64.0%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	64.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	64.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	65.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	56.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	63.0%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	63.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	66.0%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	69.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	67.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$120.7K

Volume vs Baseline

1.7x baseline

Liquidity

$67.8K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 11 days

End Date

Aug 14, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 37/100.

Probability Momentum 17

Volume Activity 31

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 52

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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