US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Current Probability
99.9%
24h Change
+4.4 pp
Signal Score
42/100
Data Confidence
High (83)
24h probability rose 4.4pp; volume is 2.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 4.4pp
- 24h volume is 2.5x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $129,743
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
99.9%
24h Change
+4.4 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+0.4 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$199.2K
Volume vs Baseline
2.5x baseline
Liquidity
$129.7K
Market Significance
High (76)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Attention Score
52
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.