US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

72.5%

24h Change

-2.0 pp

Signal Score

26/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 2.0pp; volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 55 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 2.0pp
24h volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $88,814

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

72.5%

24h Change

-2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

183 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	72.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	73.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	72.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	72.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	73.0%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	72.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	72.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	72.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	75.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	69.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	71.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	69.0%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	74.5%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	74.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	77.0%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	77.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	76.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	77.0%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	75.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	76.0%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	75.0%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	75.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	75.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	75.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$90.3K

Volume vs Baseline

1.6x baseline

Liquidity

$88.8K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 26/100.

Probability Momentum 7

Volume Activity 28

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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