Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Open · Resolves in 12 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

80.5%

24h Change

+2.0 pp

Signal Score

28/100

Data Confidence

High (85)

24h probability rose 2.0pp; volume is 1.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 59 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.0pp
24h volume is 1.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $51,036

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

80.5%

24h Change

+2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

172 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	80.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	80.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	79.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	79.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	78.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	78.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	76.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	76.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	76.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	75.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	75.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	75.0%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	77.5%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	77.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	79.0%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	79.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	79.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	79.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	79.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	81.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	81.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	81.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	81.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	81.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$93.0K

Volume vs Baseline

1.1x baseline

Liquidity

$51.0K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 12 days

End Date

Aug 15, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 28/100.

Probability Momentum 7

Volume Activity 7

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 70

Data Confidence High (85)

Next Steps

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