Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

66.5%

24h Change

-2.0 pp

Signal Score

24/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability fell 2.0pp; volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 2.0pp
24h volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $74,691

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

66.5%

24h Change

-2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

184 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	66.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	66.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	67.0%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	66.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	66.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	66.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	62.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	62.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	65.0%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	65.0%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	65.0%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	66.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	69.0%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	69.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	69.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$74.2K

Volume vs Baseline

0.9x baseline

Liquidity

$74.7K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 24/100.

Probability Momentum 7

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 55

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗