Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

Open · Resolves in 25 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

92.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 1.0pp; volume is 5.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-06 10:15 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.0pp
24h volume is 5.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $41,080

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

92.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

163 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 6, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/6/2026, 10:15:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 5:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 4:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 3:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 2:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/6/2026, 12:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM	92.5%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	93.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$79.9K

Volume vs Baseline

5.4x baseline

Liquidity

$41.1K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 25 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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