Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

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Current Probability

99.8%

24h Change

+94.8 pp

Signal Score

89/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability rose 94.8pp; volume is 59.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 50 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 18:15 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability rose 94.8pp
  • 24h volume is 59.3x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $16,117

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

No samples yet

Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.

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Current

99.8%

24h Change

+94.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

0 stored snapshots

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$125.8K

Volume vs Baseline

59.3x baseline

Liquidity

$16.1K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 26, 2026

Attention Score

97

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 89/100.

Probability Momentum 100
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 85
Persistence 40
Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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