Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
Current Probability
5.1%
24h Change
-63.4 pp
Signal Score
81/100
Data Confidence
High (77)
24h probability fell 63.4pp; volume is 4.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 63.4pp
- 24h volume is 4.4x the prior 6-day daily average
- Low liquidity ($1,529)
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
5.1%
24h Change
-63.4 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 5.1% |
| 7/29/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 3.6% |
| 7/29/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 3.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 7.2% |
| 7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 7.2% |
| 7/29/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 8.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 8.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 8.0% |
| 7/28/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 8.1% |
| 7/28/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 8.2% |
| 7/28/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 4.1% |
| 7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 7.0% |
| 7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 2.8% |
| 7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 2.8% |
| 7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 4.7% |
| 7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 2.0% |
| 7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 1.9% |
| 7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 1.9% |
| 7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 12.0% |
| 7/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 60.5% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+1.4 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$64.0K
Volume vs Baseline
4.4x baseline
Liquidity
$1.5K
Market Significance
Moderate (69)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Jul 26, 2026
Attention Score
91
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 81/100.
Probability Momentum
Strength of recent probability movement 100
Volume Activity
Trading activity versus the recent baseline 93
Liquidity Quality
Depth available to absorb orders without large price impact 74
Persistence
Whether the move holds across more than one lookback window 10
Data Confidence
Independent quality score for history coverage and data reliability High (77)