Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

72.7%

24h Change

+32.9 pp

Signal Score

81/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 32.9pp; volume is 4.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 07:27 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 32.9pp
24h volume is 4.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $65,652

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

72.7%

24h Change

+32.9 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

164 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 07:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	72.7%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	73.8%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	73.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	75.3%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	74.7%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	74.7%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	70.7%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	47.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	46.0%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	46.0%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	46.0%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	46.7%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	54.1%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	63.0%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	74.0%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	65.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	35.8%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	31.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	29.8%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	29.9%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	29.0%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	31.1%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	31.2%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$69.0K

Volume vs Baseline

4.0x baseline

Liquidity

$65.7K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 81/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 86

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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