US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 0.0pp; volume is 5.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-29 08:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability fell 0.0pp
  • 24h volume is 5.8x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $6,828,284

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 100.0% · Jul 29, 08:00 AM

99% 102% 100% Jul 28 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul 29 Current 100.0% · 7d of stored history · 20 pts

Current

100.0%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

20 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 29, 08:00 AM

View history table
Time Probability
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM 100.0%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 AM 100.0%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 AM 100.0%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 AM 100.0%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM 100.0%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 AM 100.0%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM 100.0%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 11:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 10:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 9:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM 100.0%
7/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM 100.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$222.9K

Volume vs Baseline

5.8x baseline

Liquidity

$6.8M

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

69

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 0
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 93
Persistence 20
Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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