Israel closes its airspace by August 15?

Open · Resolves in 11 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

12.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

Signal Score

29/100

Data Confidence

High (86)

24h probability rose 3.0pp; volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 3.0pp
24h volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $45,900

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

12.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

181 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	12.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	11.0%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	11.0%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	9.0%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$60.2K

Volume vs Baseline

0.9x baseline

Liquidity

$45.9K

Market Significance

High (70)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 11 days

End Date

Aug 15, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 29/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 80

Data Confidence High (86)

Next Steps

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