Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.5%

24h Change

-0.6 pp

Signal Score

33/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.6pp; volume is 2.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 11:46 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.6pp
24h volume is 2.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $92,833

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.5%

24h Change

-0.6 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

113 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 11:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.6%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	3.4%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	3.4%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	3.4%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM	3.4%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM	3.3%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.9%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.9%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.9%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.9%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM	3.0%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 PM	3.3%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$56.3K

Volume vs Baseline

2.7x baseline

Liquidity

$92.8K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 33/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 62

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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