Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 21 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

8.5%

24h Change

+2.0 pp

Signal Score

44/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 2.0pp; volume is 8.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 16:57 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.0pp
24h volume is 8.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $17,249

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

8.5%

24h Change

+2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

169 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 04:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 9:15:00 AM	9.0%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	7.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	6.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	6.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$90.4K

Volume vs Baseline

8.6x baseline

Liquidity

$17.2K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 21 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 44/100.

Probability Momentum 7

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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