Iran leadership change by August 31?

Iran leadership change by...?

Open · Resolves in 27 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.5%

24h Change

-4.0 pp

Signal Score

39/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 4.0pp; volume is 3.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 20:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 4.0pp
24h volume is 3.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $107,578

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.5%

24h Change

-4.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

121 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 08:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 8:15:00 PM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 3:45:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM	2.2%
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	2.2%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.2%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	3.0%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.6%
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	3.1%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	3.0%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	3.3%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	4.3%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.3%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	4.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$189.7K

Volume vs Baseline

3.2x baseline

Liquidity

$107.6K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 27 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 39/100.

Probability Momentum 14

Volume Activity 71

Liquidity Quality 93

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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