Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

Open · Resolves in 3 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

68.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

37/100

Data Confidence

High (78)

24h probability rose 0.5pp; volume is 4.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 08:49 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.5pp
24h volume is 4.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $27,424

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

68.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

163 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 08:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 8:45:00 AM	68.0%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	72.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	72.0%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	71.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	72.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	73.0%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	65.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	65.0%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	65.0%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	65.0%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	65.0%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	65.0%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	67.0%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	67.0%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	65.0%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	65.0%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 PM	65.0%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 PM	67.0%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 AM	68.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-4.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$34.6K

Volume vs Baseline

4.2x baseline

Liquidity

$27.4K

Market Significance

Moderate (67)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 3 days

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 37/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 89

Liquidity Quality 81

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (78)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗