Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

33.0%

24h Change

+3.1 pp

Signal Score

48/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability rose 3.1pp; volume is 5.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 57 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 3.1pp
24h volume is 5.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $13,226

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

33.0%

24h Change

+3.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

169 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	33.0%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	32.4%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	32.9%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	37.0%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	34.4%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	32.7%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	18.3%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	12.9%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	11.8%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	10.4%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	8.2%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	5.4%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	4.8%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	7.4%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	9.4%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	6.8%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	8.3%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	10.7%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	8.2%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	5.8%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	3.8%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	14.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$137.9K

Volume vs Baseline

5.0x baseline

Liquidity

$13.2K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 48/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 41

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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