Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

3.0%

24h Change

-15.4 pp

Signal Score

61/100

Data Confidence

High (78)

24h probability fell 15.4pp; volume is 4.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 58 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 15.4pp
24h volume is 4.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $7,304

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

3.0%

24h Change

-15.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

168 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	3.0%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	3.3%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.7%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.7%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	3.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	17.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	19.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	22.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	30.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	36.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	23.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	12.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$88.1K

Volume vs Baseline

4.9x baseline

Liquidity

$7.3K

Market Significance

Moderate (66)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 61/100.

Probability Momentum 52

Volume Activity 98

Liquidity Quality 80

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (78)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗