Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Current Probability
3.0%
24h Change
-15.4 pp
Signal Score
61/100
Data Confidence
High (78)
24h probability fell 15.4pp; volume is 4.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 15.4pp
- 24h volume is 4.9x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $7,304
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
3.0%
24h Change
-15.4 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+0.3 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$88.1K
Volume vs Baseline
4.9x baseline
Liquidity
$7.3K
Market Significance
Moderate (66)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Attention Score
81
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 61/100.