Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

-3.3 pp

Signal Score

46/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 3.3pp; volume is 5.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 3.3pp
24h volume is 5.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $12,653

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.3%

24h Change

-3.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

168 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	0.6%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.1%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.6%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.8%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	3.2%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	3.3%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	3.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	4.3%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	5.1%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	4.8%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	6.6%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	3.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$112.8K

Volume vs Baseline

5.9x baseline

Liquidity

$12.7K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 46/100.

Probability Momentum 11

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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