Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

Signal Score

46/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability fell 0.7pp; volume is 4.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 58 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.7pp
24h volume is 4.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $64,242

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

169 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.7%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$100.6K

Volume vs Baseline

4.7x baseline

Liquidity

$64.2K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 46/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 96

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 49

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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