NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 38 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

17.5%

24h Change

-3.0 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 3.0pp; volume is 1.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 19 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 04:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 3.0pp
24h volume is 1.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $159,571

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

17.5%

24h Change

-3.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

156 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/23/2026, 10:45:00 PM	17.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	17.0%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	15.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM	15.5%
9/23/2026, 1:15:00 PM	15.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	15.5%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM	17.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM	18.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$75.1K

Volume vs Baseline

1.0x baseline

Liquidity

$159.6K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 38 days

End Date

Nov 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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