NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 27 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

4.3%

24h Change

-1.9 pp

Signal Score

33/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 1.9pp; volume is 2.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 54 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.9pp
24h volume is 2.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $100,988

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

4.3%

24h Change

-1.9 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

173 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	4.3%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	4.3%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	4.2%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.4%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	5.2%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	6.9%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	7.7%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	8.8%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	8.3%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	4.7%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	5.1%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.3%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	6.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$96.1K

Volume vs Baseline

2.7x baseline

Liquidity

$101.0K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 27 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 33/100.

Probability Momentum 6

Volume Activity 63

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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