Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 27 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

8.5%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

52/100

Data Confidence

High (86)

24h probability rose 0.5pp; volume is 196.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 10:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.5pp
24h volume is 196.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Low liquidity ($1,466)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

8.5%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

163 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	7.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	7.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	7.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	8.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$89.3K

Volume vs Baseline

196.4x baseline

Liquidity

$1.5K

Market Significance

Moderate (63)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 27 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 52/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 75

Persistence 100

Data Confidence High (86)

Next Steps

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