Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?

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Current Probability

6.6%

24h Change

+4.9 pp

Signal Score

30/100

Data Confidence

High (74)

24h probability rose 4.9pp

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 07:42 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Low liquidity ($891)
High data confidence (74)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

6.6%

24h Change

+4.9 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

3d of stored history

45 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM	6.6%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	9.7%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.8%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.7%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	3.8%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	3.8%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	3.8%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	3.8%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	3.7%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	3.8%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	6.2%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	6.3%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	8.3%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	9.3%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM	9.8%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM	6.5%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM	6.5%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 PM	6.3%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM	9.3%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM	5.7%
7/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM	3.6%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.7%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+3.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$29.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$891

Market Significance

Moderate (58)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 30/100.

Probability Momentum 16

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 68

Persistence 86

Data Confidence High (74)

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