Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

Open · Resolves in 6 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

87.5%

24h Change

-3.0 pp

Signal Score

50/100

Data Confidence

High (87)

24h probability fell 3.0pp; volume is 3.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 55 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 3.0pp
24h volume is 3.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $61,495

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

87.5%

24h Change

-3.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

182 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	89.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	89.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	89.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	86.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	86.0%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	88.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	90.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	89.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	89.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	88.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	88.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	89.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	91.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	88.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	88.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	87.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$311.3K

Volume vs Baseline

3.6x baseline

Liquidity

$61.5K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 6 days

End Date

Aug 9, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 50/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 79

Liquidity Quality 93

Persistence 80

Data Confidence High (87)

Next Steps

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