Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?

Open · Resolves in 11 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.3%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 0.2pp; volume is 5.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 59 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.2pp
24h volume is 5.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $292,700

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.3%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

183 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	2.3%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.3%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.3%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.3%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	2.3%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.6%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.3%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.8%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.8%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.8%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	2.7%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.7%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.6%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	3.1%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	3.1%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	3.4%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.7%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.6%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$971.0K

Volume vs Baseline

5.5x baseline

Liquidity

$292.7K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 11 days

End Date

Aug 15, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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