US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

58.9%

24h Change

-3.2 pp

Signal Score

25/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 3.2pp; volume is 1.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 11:25 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 3.2pp
24h volume is 1.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $166,416

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

58.9%

24h Change

-3.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

173 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 11:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 11:15:00 AM	58.9%
9/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM	58.7%
9/24/2026, 10:00:00 AM	57.8%
9/24/2026, 9:00:00 AM	57.8%
9/24/2026, 8:00:00 AM	58.4%
9/24/2026, 7:00:00 AM	58.3%
9/24/2026, 6:00:00 AM	58.5%
9/24/2026, 5:00:00 AM	58.1%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	61.4%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	61.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	61.8%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	61.8%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 10:45:00 PM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	61.9%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	61.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+1.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$95.0K

Volume vs Baseline

1.4x baseline

Liquidity

$166.4K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 25/100.

Probability Momentum 11

Volume Activity 22

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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