US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 146 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

96.1%

24h Change

+2.0 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability rose 2.0pp; volume is 3.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 08:07 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.0pp
24h volume is 3.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $114,985

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

96.1%

24h Change

+2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	96.1%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	95.5%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	95.2%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	95.2%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	95.7%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	95.5%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	95.6%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	95.7%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	95.0%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	95.8%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	94.6%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	94.4%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	94.7%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	95.5%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	95.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	95.4%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	95.4%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	95.3%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	95.3%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	96.0%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	96.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	96.6%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	96.2%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	96.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.6 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$55.1K

Volume vs Baseline

3.2x baseline

Liquidity

$115.0K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 146 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 7

Volume Activity 73

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 60

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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