US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 53 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

66.5%

24h Change

-19.5 pp

Signal Score

62/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability fell 19.5pp; volume is 2.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 12:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 19.5pp
24h volume is 2.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $78,743

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

66.5%

24h Change

-19.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

168 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 12:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 12:45:00 PM	66.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	66.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	72.5%
8/9/2026, 10:30:00 AM	73.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	73.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	77.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	77.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	78.0%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	77.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	77.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	77.0%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	76.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	77.0%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	77.0%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	81.0%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	81.0%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	81.0%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	81.0%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	81.0%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	82.0%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	83.0%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	83.0%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	83.0%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 PM	83.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-6.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$65.8K

Volume vs Baseline

2.0x baseline

Liquidity

$78.7K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 53 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 62/100.

Probability Momentum 65

Volume Activity 42

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 58

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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