US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

8.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

16/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

volume is 0.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 40 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 16:50 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 0.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $99,743

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

8.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

178 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 04:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 4:45:00 PM	8.5%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 PM	6.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 PM	6.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM	6.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 PM	6.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/24/2026, 11:15:00 AM	8.0%
9/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/24/2026, 10:00:00 AM	6.5%
9/24/2026, 9:00:00 AM	6.5%
9/24/2026, 8:00:00 AM	6.5%
9/24/2026, 7:00:00 AM	6.5%
9/24/2026, 6:00:00 AM	6.5%
9/24/2026, 5:00:00 AM	6.5%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/23/2026, 10:45:00 PM	7.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	7.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$89.2K

Volume vs Baseline

0.6x baseline

Liquidity

$99.7K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Oct 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 16/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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