US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 39 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

31.5%

24h Change

-4.0 pp

Signal Score

29/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 4.0pp; volume is 1.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 46 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-23 22:50 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 4.0pp
24h volume is 1.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $100,250

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

31.5%

24h Change

-4.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

177 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 23, 10:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/23/2026, 10:45:00 PM	31.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	31.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	31.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	32.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	32.5%
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	32.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	32.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	33.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	36.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	35.0%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM	34.0%
9/23/2026, 1:15:00 PM	33.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	33.5%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 PM	33.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM	31.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM	31.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM	31.5%
9/23/2026, 7:30:00 AM	32.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 AM	31.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 AM	34.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$125.8K

Volume vs Baseline

1.5x baseline

Liquidity

$100.3K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 39 days

End Date

Nov 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 29/100.

Probability Momentum 13

Volume Activity 27

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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