US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 4 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

23.8%

24h Change

+4.9 pp

Signal Score

56/100

Data Confidence

High (85)

24h probability rose 4.9pp; volume is 5.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 59 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 4.9pp
24h volume is 5.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $65,296

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

23.8%

24h Change

+4.9 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	23.8%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	23.4%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	22.1%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	22.7%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	22.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	22.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	22.4%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	22.8%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	20.1%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	20.1%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	24.9%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	21.7%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	20.8%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	21.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	23.2%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	23.8%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	23.3%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	22.1%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	20.2%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	19.3%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	13.6%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	13.9%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	16.7%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	18.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+1.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$321.7K

Volume vs Baseline

5.6x baseline

Liquidity

$65.3K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 4 days

End Date

Aug 7, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 56/100.

Probability Momentum 17

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 94

Persistence 62

Data Confidence High (85)

Next Steps

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