Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?

Will Iran target Ukraine by...?

Open · Resolves in 58 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

8.0%

24h Change

-4.0 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

Medium (59)

24h probability fell 4.0pp

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-29 08:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $30,203
Medium data confidence (59)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

8.0%

24h Change

-4.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

1d of stored history

14 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 29, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM	8.0%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM	8.0%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 AM	8.0%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM	8.0%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM	8.0%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM	9.0%
7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM	9.0%
7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM	9.5%
7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM	9.5%
7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM	13.0%
7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM	14.0%
7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM	11.5%
7/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM	8.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$26.6K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$30.2K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 58 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 13

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 80

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (59)

Next Steps

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