Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 3 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-1.7 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 1.7pp; volume is 4.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 10:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.7pp
24h volume is 4.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $35,104

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-1.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

162 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.4%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$71.6K

Volume vs Baseline

4.0x baseline

Liquidity

$35.1K

Market Significance

Moderate (70)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 3 days

End Date

Aug 7, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 6

Volume Activity 86

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 42

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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