Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

3.0%

24h Change

-1.1 pp

Signal Score

40/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 1.1pp; volume is 4.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 22:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.1pp
24h volume is 4.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $35,762

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

3.0%

24h Change

-1.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

161 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:15:00 PM	3.0%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	3.0%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.7%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.8%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.4%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.1%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	4.3%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	4.3%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	3.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+1.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$95.5K

Volume vs Baseline

4.7x baseline

Liquidity

$35.8K

Market Significance

High (70)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 7, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 40/100.

Probability Momentum 4

Volume Activity 97

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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