Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

28.6%

24h Change

+10.7 pp

Signal Score

55/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 10.7pp; volume is 5.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-06 10:15 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 10.7pp
24h volume is 5.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $26,171

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

28.6%

24h Change

+10.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

163 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 6, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/6/2026, 10:15:00 AM	28.6%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 AM	28.4%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 AM	29.9%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 AM	29.4%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 AM	26.4%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 AM	20.8%
8/6/2026, 5:00:00 AM	16.7%
8/6/2026, 4:00:00 AM	11.8%
8/6/2026, 3:00:00 AM	10.8%
8/6/2026, 2:00:00 AM	19.4%
8/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM	29.6%
8/6/2026, 12:00:00 AM	27.7%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM	26.6%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	22.9%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	21.9%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	20.4%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	17.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	21.4%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	18.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	22.4%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	20.3%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	17.3%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	13.1%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	18.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$82.6K

Volume vs Baseline

5.0x baseline

Liquidity

$26.2K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 7, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 55/100.

Probability Momentum 36

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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