Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

15.5%

24h Change

-9.0 pp

Signal Score

54/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 9.0pp; volume is 8.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-06 10:15 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 9.0pp
24h volume is 8.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $21,681

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

15.5%

24h Change

-9.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

163 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 6, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/6/2026, 10:15:00 AM	15.5%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 AM	19.5%
8/6/2026, 5:00:00 AM	22.5%
8/6/2026, 4:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/6/2026, 3:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/6/2026, 2:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM	13.5%
8/6/2026, 12:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	16.5%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	22.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	22.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	24.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	28.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	28.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	26.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$66.0K

Volume vs Baseline

8.2x baseline

Liquidity

$21.7K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 7, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 54/100.

Probability Momentum 30

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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