Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.4%

24h Change

-1.3 pp

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

High (78)

24h probability fell 1.3pp; volume is 6.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-06 10:15 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.3pp
24h volume is 6.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $23,538

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.4%

24h Change

-1.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

163 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 6, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/6/2026, 10:15:00 AM	0.4%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.5%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/6/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/6/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/6/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.1%
8/6/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/6/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.2%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.8%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.4%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.8%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	3.1%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$62.6K

Volume vs Baseline

6.6x baseline

Liquidity

$23.5K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 7, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 4

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (78)

Next Steps

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