Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET

Closed View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+50.0 pp

Signal Score

63/100

Data Confidence

Medium (61)

24h probability rose 50.0pp

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-29 08:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
  • Liquidity depth $25,317
  • Medium data confidence (61)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 100.0% · Jul 29, 08:00 AM

45% 73% 100% Jul 28 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul 29 Current 100.0% · 1d of stored history · 20 pts

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+50.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

1d of stored history

20 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 29, 08:00 AM

View history table
Time Probability
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM 100.0%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 AM 99.0%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 AM 86.5%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 AM 72.5%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM 50.5%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 AM 50.0%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM 50.0%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 11:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 10:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 9:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM 50.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$19.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$25.3K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 29, 2026

Attention Score

46

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 63/100.

Probability Momentum 100
Volume Activity 0
Liquidity Quality 78
Persistence 41
Data Confidence Medium (61)

Next Steps

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