Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET

Closed View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

99.5%

24h Change

+49.0 pp

Signal Score

71/100

Data Confidence

Medium (66)

24h probability rose 49.0pp

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-29 08:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
  • Low liquidity ($3,222)
  • Medium data confidence (66)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 99.5% · Jul 29, 08:00 AM

45% 73% 100% Jul 28 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul 29 Current 99.5% · 1d of stored history · 20 pts

Current

99.5%

24h Change

+49.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

1d of stored history

20 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 29, 08:00 AM

View history table
Time Probability
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM 99.5%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 AM 50.5%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 AM 50.5%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 AM 50.0%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM 50.0%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 AM 50.0%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM 50.0%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 11:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 10:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 9:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM 50.0%
7/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM 50.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+49.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$30.9K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$3.2K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 29, 2026

Attention Score

45

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 71/100.

Probability Momentum 100
Volume Activity 0
Liquidity Quality 73
Persistence 100
Data Confidence Medium (66)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.