Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 4?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

97.5%

24h Change

+21.1 pp

Signal Score

51/100

Data Confidence

High (73)

24h probability rose 21.1pp

Market data

Updated 58 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $42,081
High data confidence (73)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

97.5%

24h Change

+21.1 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	97.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	97.4%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	96.8%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	97.0%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	96.7%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	96.6%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	96.8%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	96.8%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	96.1%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	96.3%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	96.4%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	93.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	93.7%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	93.6%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	93.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	93.6%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	96.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	96.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	96.8%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	96.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	96.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	95.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	94.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	94.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.8 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

24h Volume

$208.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$42.1K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 51/100.

Probability Momentum 70

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 42

Data Confidence High (73)

Next Steps

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