Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 4?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

16.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

16/100

Data Confidence

Medium (70)

Signal passed quality checks

Market data

Updated 55 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $23,700

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

16.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	16.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	30.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	29.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	52.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	40.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	42.0%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	17.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	24.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	29.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	30.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	40.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	44.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	46.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	42.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	37.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	47.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-5.0 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

24h Volume

$75.8K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$23.7K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 16/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (70)

Next Steps

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