Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

-0.9 pp

Signal Score

22/100

Data Confidence

High (73)

24h probability fell 0.9pp

Market data

Updated 55 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $40,388
High data confidence (73)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.3%

24h Change

-0.9 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

Coverage

7d of stored history

170 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	0.6%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.1%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.8%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	1.9%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.2 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

24h Volume

$123.9K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$40.4K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 22/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 53

Data Confidence High (73)

Next Steps

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