Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 5?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

99.9%

24h Change

+2.5 pp

Signal Score

24/100

Data Confidence

High (73)

24h probability rose 2.5pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 23:39 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $33,282
High data confidence (73)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.9%

24h Change

+2.5 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

Coverage

6d of stored history

153 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 11:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	99.3%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	99.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	99.6%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 6:15:00 PM	99.6%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	99.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	99.2%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	99.6%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	99.4%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	99.4%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	99.4%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	98.6%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	98.6%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	98.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	98.3%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	98.2%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	98.0%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	98.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	98.1%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	98.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	97.9%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	97.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.4 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

24h Volume

$78.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$33.3K

Market Significance

Moderate (70)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 5, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 24/100.

Probability Momentum 8

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 50

Data Confidence High (73)

Next Steps

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