Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 5?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.4%

24h Change

-0.2 pp

Signal Score

16/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability fell 0.2pp

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 07:27 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $28,429
Medium data confidence (69)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.4%

24h Change

-0.2 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

6d of stored history

134 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 07:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.2%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$54.9K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$28.4K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 5, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 16/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (69)

Next Steps

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