Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31?

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Current Probability

5.5%

24h Change

-44.5 pp

Signal Score

65/100

Data Confidence

Medium (62)

24h probability fell 44.5pp

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-31 10:05 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $43,008
Medium data confidence (62)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

5.5%

24h Change

-44.5 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

42 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 31, 10:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	5.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM	12.5%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM	24.5%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM	29.5%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM	27.5%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM	31.5%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM	29.5%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM	42.0%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM	49.5%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM	53.5%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM	55.5%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 PM	50.5%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM	52.5%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM	53.5%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM	50.5%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	56.5%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM	53.5%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM	52.5%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM	52.5%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM	52.5%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	50.5%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	50.0%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM	50.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-3.0 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$88.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$43.0K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 65/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 44

Data Confidence Medium (62)

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