San Marino: Alexandre Muller vs Mili Poljicak

Open · Resolves in 3 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

45.5%

24h Change

-19.0 pp

Signal Score

53/100

Data Confidence

Medium (66)

24h probability fell 19.0pp

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-31 17:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $390,891
Medium data confidence (66)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

45.5%

24h Change

-19.0 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

43 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 31, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM	45.5%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM	54.5%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM	63.0%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM	64.5%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM	64.5%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM	64.5%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM	66.5%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM	66.5%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 PM	66.5%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM	65.5%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM	65.5%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM	65.5%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	65.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-9.0 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$158.7K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$390.9K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 3 days

End Date

Aug 7, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 53/100.

Probability Momentum 63

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 68

Data Confidence Medium (66)

Next Steps

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