Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

Open · Resolves in 52 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

4.1%

24h Change

-0.5 pp

Signal Score

35/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability fell 0.5pp; volume is 2.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 09:27 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.5pp
24h volume is 2.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $267,292

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

4.1%

24h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

162 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 09:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 9:15:00 AM	4.1%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	4.2%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	4.1%
8/10/2026, 5:30:00 AM	4.1%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	4.3%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.6%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	4.8%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.8%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	4.8%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.9%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	4.9%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.9%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	4.9%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	4.9%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	4.9%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	4.9%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	4.8%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	4.8%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	4.7%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$52.3K

Volume vs Baseline

2.6x baseline

Liquidity

$267.3K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 52 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 35/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 58

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 45

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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