Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets August 1 - August 3, 2026?

Closed View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

84.5%

24h Change

+49.0 pp

Signal Score

63/100

Data Confidence

High (71)

24h probability rose 49.0pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 10:56 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $6,033
High data confidence (71)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

84.5%

24h Change

+49.0 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

4d of stored history

93 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 10:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	84.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	84.5%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	84.0%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	84.0%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	83.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	79.5%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	79.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	79.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	57.0%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	74.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	69.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	74.0%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	72.5%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	65.5%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	59.0%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	63.5%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	57.0%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	56.0%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	46.0%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	40.0%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	34.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$74.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$6.0K

Market Significance

Moderate (65)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 3, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 63/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 79

Persistence 41

Data Confidence High (71)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗