Trump out as President by August 31?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.9%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

17/100

Data Confidence

High (71)

Signal passed quality checks

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 10:56 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $338,951

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.9%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

4d of stored history

91 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 10:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 8:15:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$189.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$339.0K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 17/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 93

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (71)

Next Steps

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