S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?

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Current Probability

99.9%

24h Change

+25.4 pp

Signal Score

53/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability rose 25.4pp

Market data

Updated 16 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 18:27 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $24,876
Medium data confidence (69)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.9%

24h Change

+25.4 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

79 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 06:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	99.0%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	98.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	98.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	93.7%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	96.3%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	95.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	95.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	94.0%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	95.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	95.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	90.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	88.0%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	81.0%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	78.0%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	77.5%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	79.0%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	75.0%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	75.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$262.8K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$24.9K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 3, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 53/100.

Probability Momentum 85

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (69)

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